A grave mistake

[admin2]

And again:
This thread is about Gaza and not the US presidential elections Speaker of the House (relevant posts now moved to viewtopic.php?f=64&t=4694). If you mix up two topics in one thread it gets kind of confusing!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Israelis just flattened the Iranian Consulate in Damascus.
It was directly between the Iranian and Canadian embassies.



At least one and possibly 3 IRGC Generals are reported dead (Iranian sources).

The Iranians are bleating like mad, but of course consular immunity only applies for legitimate consular activities.
Looks like a top level meeting of the IRGC Generals responsible for Syria, Lebanon and Palestine were taken out, plus Zahadi's deputy and up to four others.

Initial reports are that the two embassies are not significantly damaged, and the Iranian Consul is unharmed.
The Canadians closed their embassy in 2012, so no risk of Canadian casualties.

[tango15]

This would surely be the Iranian embassy since it's in the capital. Not that it affects the outcome of what has happened, the reprisals for which I suspect will be quite swift and merciless. This could mark a significant escalation in the conflict.

Will the US be happy to continue supplying weapons to Israel when they are being used outside their territory, albeit against a mutual enemy?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Nope. The Iranian Embassy is next door, and appears to have no sig. damage from the view I've seen.

The IRGC General killed has been under US sanctions for some time.
The US killed Soleimani in Iraq, so I shouldn't think they are the least bothered about this bunch.
However, Biden's first question to anything for the next 7 months is "Which response gets me the most votes in November?",
and the most common implied question is "How will this affect the price of gas?"
With Soleimani, the price of gas was back below where it was just before the strike after about 3 months.
Applying some back-of-the-envelope bar-room logic, the Isrealis will be asked to stop this kind of thing after July 4th.

[tango15]

Nope. The Iranian Embassy is next door, and appears to have no sig. damage from the view I've seen.

Interesting. So they must have had good intelligence about what was going on - nothing new there, but on that basis, the timing and aiming of the device had to be extremely accurate.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Indeed.

IRGC now confirming directly that Zahadi and his deputy, another IRGC General, died.
Assorted sources, including Iranian Ambassador (also unharmed) reporting at least 7 dead.

Informed comment seems to be that Iran doesn't want to escalate to a full war, so there will probably be some minor strike in response in about a week.

[Pinky the pilot]

Iran doesn't want to escalate to a full war

Because they know that they'd have their arses thoroughly kicked, or???

I suspect that the answers are varied and complicated.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I think it's just that they can't afford it.
One more set of sanctions and the Iranian economy collapses.

[Woody]

IDF not always so clinical

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-68710515

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Seems to be very clinical.

Reports indicate that the WCK vehicle was part of a three vehicle convoy, that the other two vehicles were armoured, and all three were hit.
Others have noted the several intact windows on the WCK vehicle, so one of the new weapons designed to kill only those within the vehicle and minimise collateral casualties was used.
I note one of the other two vehicles was not present when the press arrived.
How interesting that the only surviving bits of paper happen to be the WCK logos, and only singed at the edges, and are face up.

It would appear the Israelis therefore hit exactly what they intended to hit, but that information on who was in the WCK vehicle was incorrect.
The scene has clearly been 'prepared' for the press by Hamas, or maybe they did it themselves.
One awaits the promised investigation.

UPDATE: Netanyahu says the convoy was hit 'unintentionally'.

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has admitted an "unintentional" Israeli strike killed "innocent people" in Gaza, after seven people working for food aid charity World Central Kitchen were killed.

Speaking in Hebrew in a video message, he said: "Unfortunately, in the last 24 hours there was a tragic case of our forces unintentionally hitting innocent people in the Gaza Strip.

"It happens in war, we check it to the end, we are in contact with the governments, and we will do everything so that this thing does not happen again."

This doesn't help with analysing what went wrong; "our forces unintentionally hitting innocent people" is always true.
I maintain my analysis that the IDF intended to hit these vehicles, but intelligence was in error about who was in them.

[tango15]

It would not surprise me to learn that Hamas are using these types of vehicles eg ambulances and vehicles clearly identified as being NGO, for moving about. Any organisation that maintains its regional headquarters underneath hospitals clearly has little regard for the lives of others.
It sounds as though the IDF were aware of the dual use of the vehicles, but whoever they believed would be in them wasn't on that occasion, as you say F3.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

There's ample evidence of them using ambulances, and as they also have a whole bunch working for the UN,
I think the only question is whether the Israelis screwed up, or whether Hamas deliberately set them up.

[Boac]

3 Brits reported killed in the vehicle.

[bob2s]

3 Brits reported killed in the vehicle.

Plus one Australian lady.

[John Hill]

People should realise that the IDF is the army of God's chosen people and as such can do no wrong.

[Woody]

People should realise that the IDF is the army of God's chosen people and as such can do no wrong.

I think that they seriously screwed up this time.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68722758

[Dushan]

And they admitted it and apologized. Is anyone apologizing for 1200 dead people and hundreds of (still) held hostages?

[Boac]

And they admitted it and apologized. Is anyone apologizing for 32,000 dead men, women and children? 1200 dead people and hundreds of (still) held hostages?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Is anyone apologizing for 32,000 dead men, women and children?

Hamas is using the Gazan population as human shields, so it is Hamas who should be apologizing for both the dead hostages and the dead Gazans.
Or are the command centres under hospitals, the UN relief money used to build them, and the ammo dumps under schools being forgotten about?

We should also remember that the Gazans freely voted to make Hamas the majority party. Elections have consequences.

[Dushan]

Elections have consequences.

Oh, yeah, don't we know it F3!