Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

More Russian tanks on transporters in Makiiva, Donetsk, videoed today



I have tentatively geolocated them to here
https://www.google.com/maps/@48.0456511 ... a=!3m1!1e3

They are on the same route as the other lot a couple of days ago, but going the other direction, i.e. west.
From these two videos, this would seem to be a normal route for rotation of forces, rather than indications of a mass transfer in a particular direction.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Putin - Xi meeting in Uzbekistan today

https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/new ... 66/14e.jpg

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Well, lots of claims of advances and captures on all fronts, but not a sausage of verifiable evidence.

One awaits developments.

I think the silence of the Russian commentators says a lot.

Toodle pip!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

For a change, lots of news!
Not much on progress, but a lot of peripheral/strategic.
I'll post in several parts.

Political
IAEA has, in closed session, resolved to call on Russia to leave the Zaphorizhzhia nuclear power plant.

A captured then released Ukrainian female medic has been testifying before the US Congress about her time in Russian captivity, describing her daily torture, and the murders of other PoWs that she witnessed.
Mass grave discovered at Izyum being excavated at the moment. Press on hand as the digging progresses, so will be hard for the Russians to claim evidence was planted. Looks gruesome, so I won't describe.
This should be the final straw in terms of any rational international political support for any peace settlement short of complete Russian withdrawal.
Much more funding expected from the US for Ukraine.
Be interesting to see how the Chinese position changes towards Russia once Xi gets back home.

Several assassinations of high ranking Russian collaborators in the occupied territories in the last couple of days.
Big arty/rocket strike in Kherson today at a building where the civilian admin heads were meeting.

The 'Russian passports' issued to those in the territories appear to be being rejected at the Russian border.
This may be a short term move to shore up the civilian admin in the territories by stopping them fleeing, or they were never intended as real passports, or the dorks at the border simply haven't got the memo.

Much circumstantial evidence that the occupied Luhansk, Donetsk and Kherson occupation civil admins are now understaffed to the point of paralysis. Can't see how they will fix this.

Military next.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Military

The Russian units on the Kherson front line appear to be their best - Guards Air Assault, Guards Mountain Air Assault, Cat 'A' Motor Rifle, etc. This explains the slow Uke progress.
The Russians appear desperate to stop the Uke advances, especially the crossings over the Inhulets.
I've seen several (successful) TV-guided ASM strikes on a pontoon bridge, and the dam that controls the river is being attacked again.
This is, of course, losing the Russians strike aircraft, including Fencers not just Frogfoots, and further reducing their stocks of high precision missiles.

I expect the Russians north of the Dnipro will fight to the last bullet, so progress will be minimal until there's a general surrender due to running out of supplies. All Dnipro river crossings remain closed to heavy equipment and trucks.

The Frogfoot crash just after the pairs takeoff has just been geolocated to the Millerovo air base, just inside Russia northeast of Luhansk.

I can still find no evidence of either major Uke troop crossings of the Oskil, or substantial Russian forces in NE Ukraine, certainly west of Starobilsk.
The Ukes appear to have more than one crossing across the Oskil, with SF active.
Looks like this whole area is something of a No Mans Land.
Speculation: The complete collapse of the Russian forces north and east of Kharkiv surprised everyone. The Uke plan was to advance to the Oskil and stop.
However, the Russians have retreated from the east bank of the Oskil right back to the Luhansk-Severodonetsk cities, except for screening forces.
The Ukes decided to stop at the Oskil anyway, but have now pushed out SF to scout the area the Russians have mainly abandoned.

The Ukraine Defence Ministry published this quote today

"Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt."

Sun Tzu, The Art of War

So, I think we may expect a major push in the next week or so.
My guess remains the same. They'll push east from the Oskil as far as the Russian border, and sweep round to cut supplies to Luhansk

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Strategy

The Russians must hold Crimea. It's the highest pro-Russian portion of Ukraine. Its strategic location gives great access to the Black Sea, and it's been fought over for this reason since Roman times.
It also controls access to the Sea of Azov, which contains major Russian ports, and also has gas and oil reserves. The Ukes holding Crimea puts the major Russian naval base at Novorossiysk under threat of missile attack.
Putin spent over $3.5 billion on the Kerch Bridge
However, Crimea has a major water shortage, and needs supplies from the Dnipro river. The canal starts around Nova Kakhovka.
For this reason, the Russians need to hold the west bank of the Dnipro, and Kherson. That's why they've shifted their best forces there and left the Kharkiv region so poorly defended.

The second Russian priority is the land link along the north coast of the Sea of Azov, as the Kerch Bridge is so vulnerable. This includes Mariupol, Berdiansk, and Melitopol.
This area is basically open farmland. It will be a nightmare to try and capture after the rasputitsa starts, because the winter follows directly afterwards.
Equally, it will be a nightmare to use as a supply route for the Russians in winter, especially if the Ukes are able to push about 30 miles south from their current positions south of Zaphorizhzhia, and capture the city of Tokmak.
Tokmak is the rail hub that links Russia to Crimea along the north shore of Azov.
Melitopol would be better. It is not vital to reach the coast (e.g. Mariupol). The coast does not put the Kerch Bridge in HIMARS/MRLS range, unless the Yanks supply a few ATACMS missiles.

So, it could be that the Ukes will feint to a push onwards in NE Ukraine, then launch an assault to recapture Tokmak/Melitopol. Or v.v.
They could do both.
Shift most of the assault troops south, leave a weaker force to push into NE Ukraine (which should be sufficient), then go for Melitopol a 2-7 days after the NE push starts.
I note Melitopol airport has been hit a couple of times recently, including today.

Russia will give up NE Ukraine, then Luhansk, then Donetsk, to keep these two priority acquisitions.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

It's really kicking off in the 'Stans.
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan now in conflict, as well as Armenia v. Azerbaijan
Everyone seems to think the Russians are not only powerless to help their former allies, but will remain so for quite some time.
Expect further rough stuff in Central Asia. There are any number of enclaves and exclaves, and the dudes round there hold a grudge for a thousand years, at least!

The really important question is whether/when any of the Russian Federations will start angling for Independence.

Worth also bearing in mind that the looming world food shortage situation isn't getting any better, with the rice crop the latest problem, e.g.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 022-09-09/
The UN will blow a lot of hot air around, but there won't be any capability to interfere with local wars for a year at least.

On the good news side, my new walkway is coming along quite nicely, and Santa hasn't had his reindeer requisitioned...yet.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The official and unofficial Russian media and influencers continue their complete lack of commentary on the progress in the war on the ground for a sixth straight day.
Only a few die-hard 'looney tunes' and the Russian milbloggers are raving on, with fantasy-land stuff that they provide zero evidence for.
Putin has just said it's all going to plan and Russia is in "no hurry".

This is head-in-the-sand stuff.
They are "out of airspeed, ammunition, and ideas".

[boing]

Simply look at the faces during this speech. Pure mindless malice.



On the other hand, how do you go up against people with this attitude.

[media]https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Zg2d0jrrgtc[/media]

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[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

For "respect", as with all gangsters, read "fear"

[Pinky the pilot]

On the other hand, how do you go up against people with this attitude.

With great difficulty, as the Russkies are finding out! Love the music that accompanies that clip. Anyone know its title?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

No significant developments on the front lines overnight.

Biden has made a public statement about possible Russian use of nukes and chemicals having "consequences".

7th straight day with all the usual Russian crowd saying nothing at all about the situation on the battlefield.
Rail line near Melitopol blown, quite professionally by the looks of it. Insufficient background to geolocate, but could be the main line from Russia to Kherson along the north coast of the Sea of Azov.

The Ukes are planning something soon, I reckon, but things look quiet for the next day or two.
I'm taking the weekend off.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

All quiet on the western front, at least in terms of major attacks.

Zelenskyi says the Ukes ARE preparing something.

Russian media & proxies continue their silence on News From The Front
Yesterday, RT published a rash of articles all aimed indirectly at getting various foreign groups to pressure Ukraine to restart peace talks. Pathetic, really.
Today we get 1812 - Russia loses Moscow and Still Beats A Dictator
https://www.rt.com/russia/562799-war-of ... s-retreat/
I suspect Putin's Director of Media is a rather nasty 11 year old.

Rocket strikes and partisan bombings continue around Melitopol. The Ukrainian policeman who collaborated and allegedly became the torture boss in Melitopol found his swish BMW became the absolute bomb yesterday.

Ukraine has publicly announced that its troops are across the Oskil in several places. The bus station in Svatove, which had been converted into a Russian army facility, got a precision rocket strike, killing a claimed 200. It was conveniently somewhat isolated from surrounding civilian housing, due to the bus manoeuvring areas.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Zelenskyi has held another meeting of the Staff of the Supreme C-in-C. Last one was less than a week before the Kharkiv offensive started.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

A temporary clearing of cloud cover over the Kharkiv front means some FIRMS fire data is available.
Multiple fires in the industrial area on the SE side of Svatove, probably Uke rocket strikes on Russian military depots.
Same in Dvorichne, on the east bank of the Oskil, further north.

Looks like a Uke strike on the oil depot north of Luhansk.

Also on another possible pontoon ferry landing point just east of Nova Kakhovka.
Fires SE of Tryfonivka are probably another Russian ammo dump going up.
The Russians north of the Dnipro must be almost out of supplies by now.
There are very few fires anywhere that look like they have been caused by Russian arty fire - it's almost all Ukraine.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Bit of speculation: If the Ukes do attack south of Zaporizhzhia soon, there may be multiple prongs to the attack, including one or more across the Dnipro.
Securing the Enerhodar nuke power plant must be a safety priority for Ukraine.

[boing]

Fox,

That's the point I made several posts ago. Any Ukrainian action against the NPP has been delayed by circumstances, inspectors on site, discussions in the EU, status of the reactors, etc. My guess is that any commencement of a Zap. counter-offensive will be followed very shortly by a thoroughly planned SF move against the plant. This will lead to defusing of a, literally, nuclear threat and enormous positive publicity for the Ukraine.

The NPP is now in the safest condition it has been in for several weeks and what do the Russians do in the event of a Ukrainian counter attack at Zap., defend the plant or defend the region? Any Ukraine action will need to be exactly timed and executed but they can do it. If you think about it this is parallel to the Israeli job at Entebbe.

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[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Good points, I completely agree.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Calm before the storm, militarily.
Everyone is expecting a major attack (or several) by the Ukrainians, which they have been dropping heavy hints at, and the seasonal weather would indicate must happen soon.

All is not calm on the political front.
The Russian-occupied regions are pushing for referenda within the week, putatively starting in 3 days. Obviously there isn't the slightest chance of these being free or fair, but the point is to make themselves part of the Russian Federation.
This means attacks (or continuing attacks) on them would give Putin grounds to declare War, and so Mobilisation (a reminder that it's just a Special Military Operation at present, and thus under Russian Law Putin can't announce Mobilization).
His attempts at recruiting more forces without mobilization have clearly failed horribly, and the Russians seem to be staring complete defeat in the face at the moment. It could take quite a while to happen, but there's always the risk of a repeat of Kupyansk/Izyum, and the undersupplied rabble just running if the Ukes can push hard enough.
The State Duma have just passed the necessary enabling laws to permit this
Lukashenko, in Belarus, is testiculating again. He won't do anything, but Putin's clearly given him a prod.

The extremist Russians have been stating for a week that NATO forces constitute over half the forces they are facing, and that Putin should be chucking nukes about. Zero evidence, of course.
This is an inevitable consequence of the claims they have been making about Ukrainian losses - the Ukes couldn't have many troops left if their claims were true.
Obviously this is meant to be the top of the Overton Window frame in Russia. Putin set the bottom of the frame last week by saying everything was going to plan and he wasn't in a hurry.



There has been an explosion outside Shebekino, Russia. Looks like a biggie


Putin is giving himself all the excuses he needs with the Russian people to escalate this a lot.
Naturally, though reluctant, he'll be forced to act because of the clear will of the people and to protect the world from Nazis...yada, yada.
Obviously this is also meant as a threat to the western powers supporting Ukraine.

The juggler has chucked the running chainsaws in the air. Good luck catching them by the handles.

[boing]

Anybody want to see the "Charge of the Light Brigade" in reverse?

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