Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

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Actually, the unintended pun - Victoria Shi vs zahharova...

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Experts claim the ruz advances form just 0.02% of the territory, so not relevant in the big picture (especially as it's due to UKR shortage of ammunition).
As for the ruz problems with fuel, it does not affect mil needs (they'll get what they need, no matter what), and the civilians are told (if at all) about 'temporary difficulties'. Exports of fuels were stopped, ruz imports oil from Byelorussia, unheard of up to now. UKR has hit some of the oil pipelines distribution stations (or whatever they're called?) needed to keep it flowing, but avoided attacking the export terminals in the Black Sea.
Neither side is expected to be able to have forces for breakthrough this summer/year, and thanks or due to drones, it's impossible to get any bigger units any closer than at least 10 km from the frontline.

After the festivities for putin 'coronation' (May 7), changes are expected, and probably the process has started to remove the putin confidant shoigu. putin will tighten his grip and more 'accidents' will happen in the 'russophobic' countries that disapprove agression towards neighbours.

[tango15]

Yes, one of the more recent Ukr attacks looked more like a distribution centre to me, rather than a refinery, but no matter, it still chokes the system.

It always amazes me that so many of these people fall from balconies in tall buildings. Whenever I visited friends who lived in apartments, the bloody lifts were u/s. They would apologise, and tell me that they'd been broken for weeks, but then I suppose the FSB can fix anything!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Local Russian Telegram channels are reporting that the limestone quarry that got the ATACMS strike I mentioned was hiding Iskander SSBM launchers.
Sounds like a good strike, as it's a very capable system.

[probes]

... the limestone quarry that got the ATACMS strike I mentioned was hiding Iskander SSBM launchers.

Kudos for shrewd deduction!
I enjoyed the reasoning, by the way.

meanwhile, ruz has started to sell what's left of the Avdiivka coke plant..

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Frontline events are like climate change - the hot places (Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Donetsk) are getting hotter, but are bearable (for now), the 'cooler' places are 'cool' (no activity around Terny, not much towards Melitopol e.g and around Herson ruz mil bloggers complain the forces and ammo has been redirected to East-UKR, leaving them the Korean stuff that is of questionable quality. To put it diplomatically.). ruz has considerable forces in the hot places - not all over the front any more, though.
So, ruz is deploying 'other means' - like activating its spy network for sabotage. The network is wide and deep (years of quiet development) due to the naive europeans (and their leaders), who refused to believe the countries bordering ruz (therefore having a clearer understanding on what the nasty neighbor is overtly or covertly up to). It's considered possible that ruz will find 'local' forces for terrorist acts (like arson or derailing trains etc).
Sabotage and info-ops expected. The Baltics have got their share already by m-me zahharova claiming the ruzzophobic breakaways (from the SSSR) have severed all ties with ruz, which is unheard of and ungrounded (of course) and now their economies are sinking due to rejecting the benefits ruz could and would offer. Would have.
Some official replies have been issued to remind ruz it happened after they started an aggressive war with their neighbour.

Xi is in Europe after a while, in Paris that is, and has reflected on the situation, trying to straddle the chairs of conflicting interests, seeking to remain in that tricky position for as long as possible. Chinese President Xi Jinping has begun his carefully planned tour of Europe, where he will visit France, Serbia and Hungary to discuss Beijing's relations with Moscow.

Xi said that he wanted to work with the international community to find ways to solve the conflict sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in a newspaper op-ed published as he began his state visit. "We hope that peace and stability will return quickly to Europe, and intend to work with France and the entire international community to find good paths to resolve the crisis," he wrote in the Le Figaro daily, emphasizing that China was "neither a party nor a participant" in the conflict.

The position is understandable, which does not make it commendable from the point of view of disapproving agression. They want ruz participating in the peace summit (June, was it?) and the further perspective seems to be to encourage European economical cooperation with China instead of supporting UKR.
Jake Sullivan has suggested UKR would be able to fight their territories back in 2025, provided the aid will not stop.
The tug-o-war about will they/won't they on the issue of boots of an army of some European country in UKR is ongoing. Which is good to indicate puting might not be as invincible as he thinks, even with the silent supporters.

Edited: drones. ruz spy drones are real nuisance, reaching up to 100 km behind the frontline, and the smaller Supercam (gave data for hitting HIMARS and Patriot) and Zala are hard to discover (smaller and electric, no noise). EW to get drones down tends to be half a step behind on both sides. Which makes more and more absurd and outrageous that UKR is not allowed to use some means on ruz territory.
Some panic (ruz) on US plans to fit Home-on GPS (HOJ) sensors on their JDAM. Which makes the glide bomb return to the sender.
Belgorod got a taste of ruz glide bombs at the weekend - just one, though, but the damage was extensive. But then, ruz sends about 70 (!) to UKR every day.

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From AP

Russia said Monday it plans to hold drills simulating the use of battlefield nuclear weapons amid rising tensions following comments by senior Western officials about the possibility of deeper involvement in the war in Ukraine.
The announcement came on the eve of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inauguration to a fifth term in office and in a week when Moscow on Thursday will celebrate Victory Day, its most important secular holiday, marking its defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II.
The drills come in response to “provocative statements and threats of certain Western officials regarding the Russian Federation,” the Defense Ministry said in a statement.

So, brace for the impact - it's Western officials who are threatening ruz.

The Russian announcement stirred little reaction in Ukraine, where the spokesman for the Military Intelligence agency, Andrii Yusov, said on national television: “Nuclear blackmail is a usual practice of Putin’s regime; it does not constitute major news.”

[Boac]

Video from 'Telegram' allegedly showing a boat full of Rusky troops hitting a mine in a river. https://t.me/shlyah_ukraine/1643

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

For those without Telegram
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112387939005748188

[Boac]

Mine's bigger than yours.................

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

..and longer!
However, those on the receiving end are just as dead?

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Ok, guys...

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Last night:


from the comments on the video: New insult among Russian helicopter pilots: "You couldn't hit a marine drone if you landed on it."

And ruz is threatening the UK 'full scale' - basically claiming: "We may, can and will do anything, you must not do nothing."

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

putin's spooked, then, with all that BS rhetoric.
But as Ukrainian Intelligence said in response:
"So far, we don’t see anything new, except for the disinformation effect and statements. Nuclear blackmail is a common practice of the Putin regime. There is no epoch-making news here."

Speaking of droning on, the Ukrainians are continuing their campaign of hitting road transport over the border in Russia, mainly Belgorod Oblast.


Yesterday they appear to have hit an army truck, a fuel tanker, and a bus. The day before, 2 army trucks and an army pickup.
The day before that, a fuel tanker. I noted that the Russian news did a feature on a hit agricultural tanker...except when video of the strike came out it was clearly a different truck in the feature.
The Russians had substituted an ag vehicle for the actual fuel tanker struck.
Now obviously the Ukrainians are only going to show us the good video, but so far I have only seen strikes on military vehicles, and fuel tankers. All the attack profiles are similar, and include a careful recce of the target first.
So, why the bus? Did someone screw up, or was it really Iranian drone experts?
The damage to the bus roof would indicate the drone hit from a flightpath following the bus. This is the preferred attack direction, judging from other videos, and indicates a controlled, deliberate attack.
And if it was, and I'll give the Ukes the benefit of the doubt on this, what does that tell us about the Ukes' access to intel on the movements of the Iranians, because it's clearly a civilian bus.
For once, pics of the bodies would be useful.
I have seen video from southern Kherson with the Ukes hitting large, civilian trucks, where they do a flyby so the truckers can see they are being tracked. The drivers then stop and run away, at which point the truck is hit.
Now, that may just be because the truckers in Kherson are probably Ukrainians, whereas the civilian truckers in Russia are not, but it does show at least some of the Ukrainians would not deliberately hit a wholly civilian bus.

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a couple of days ago there was the news that several ruz oblasts - don't remember which ones - had started to seize vehicles from drunk drivers (must be in abundance ) to send these to the front, so maybe that's why a civilian minibus?
Actually, Latvia has done that for a while already. Sent the vehicles to UKR, that is.

Putin's Crimea bridge has been out of military use for at least 3 months, satellite images suggest - meaning, not a mil priority any more. The Bridge.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Concrete and steel don't burn, fuel trains and ammo trucks do.
I note that whenever there's an air alert anywhere in Crimea, they shut the Bridge.
The Ukrainians didn't damage the bridge directly last time, but blew up a truck whilst a fuel train was passing.
I shouldn't think the Russians have confidence that bridge movements are a secret to Ukrainian intelligence,
so by using it in any regular way, they'd just make it easier to damage.
What the Ukes now need to do is hit the Russian railways in Russia, and ATACMS should help them do that.
It's all about the railways, as I have been saying since the start.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Dunno what to make of this.
Kadyrov is quite possibly on some drug or other.
I don't see how the Russians have the forces to take Kharkiv, and Odesa is right out.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112400409299894104

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Deluded.
He must be on several drugs, as he was reported to have some kind of pancreatic necrosis (or something) and being kept heavily medicated. Some 'successor' on some photos even (looks 'normal' and speaks ruz without Kadyrov's accent).
Is Chechnya preparing for Kadyrov's demise — and what could come next?

ruz does not have the forces for serious advances. UKR has mined territories for ruz the same way as they were stopped last summer.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

What comes next in Chechnya will be the same as the rest of the Third World.
Kadyrov's trying to line his sons up for the leadership, but he likely won't last long enough, so he will look for putin to control the actual leader till they are old enough.
However, one dark night, his sons will all fall off their balconies in unison, and the actual leader, who is probably one of Kadyrov's "right-hand men" now, will launch a criminal inquiry, blame any other rivals he has,
and have the rivals executed. And putin will happily deal with the new leader.
The above plot is probably copyright Mario Puzo

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Who knows.
Maybe the Chechenys who fought for Dudayev and Chechen Independence will get their chance? Many are fighting for UKR now.