Chaos in Germany

[Dirk]

It is a valid analogy, just as it's also a valid analogy for the whole Human race, proportions do differ, with **** seemingly having rather a lot more poisened sweeties in their midst, so whilst It's hardly a visionary observation, it does have a greater basis in truth than most of the rubbish that C**t spews out his oriface

[Airborne Aircrew]

You can't call the son of the future POTUS a cart... You'll have black helicopters everywhere....

[GrumpyOldFart]

there are millions of Skittles still out there and the people are forced to eat them

Not worth eating - scrawny little buggas, most of 'em. Hairy, too. And so are the men.

[Airborne Aircrew]

there are millions of Skittles still out there and the people are forced to eat them

Not worth eating - scrawny little buggas, most of 'em. Hairy, too. And so are the men.

And make sure to wash them thoroughly beforehand to get any sand out of the cracks and crevices...

[OFSO]

Don't forget about Deutsche Bank

The banking crisis in Italy has gotten all the attention lately, but one of the biggest banks in the world is still a serious potential problem.

The bank in question is Deutsche Bank. It’s the largest bank in Germany, by far, and one of the twelve largest in the world.

It is difficult to overstate the importance of Deutsche Bank not only to the global economy, but also in terms of its vast web of off-balance-sheet derivatives, guarantees, trade finance, and other financial obligations on five continents.

It’s well known that Deutsche Bank is the “sick man” of European banking.

Deutsche Bank is certainly in the “too big to fail” category. Therefore it won’t be allowed to fail. Germany will intervene as needed to prop up the bank.

The problems at Deutsche Bank are well-known. They have suffered through bad debt write-offs and mark-to-market trading losses just like many of their big bank peers. But, the problems go deeper.

Deutsche Bank’s capital has barely been adequate under generous ECB “stress tests,” and is completely inadequate under real world scenarios involving a global liquidity crisis of the kind we saw in 2008.

This summer, the US Department of Justice announced that it was seeking $14 billion to settle charges that Deutsche Bank engaged in misleading sales practices with regard to residential mortgage backed securities between 2005 and 2007.

Of course, that was just a claim. But, even if Deutsche Bank settles the case for a fraction of that amount, say $5 billion, it will significantly impair an already weak capital base.

Not surprisingly, Deutsche Bank’s stock suffered enormously as a result. From a pre-Lehman interim high of €104 per share, it fell to €34 per share by early 2015. That’s a 68% decline, mostly driven by the global financial crisis of 2007-08 and the European sovereign debt crisis of 2011-2015.

Just when investors thought things could not get worse, they did. From the €34 per share level in 2015, Deutsche Bank stock fell again to €10.25 per share in September. That was a massive decline off the lower 2015 base. Its stock has since bounced back.

But it’s still afflicted with bad debts, high expenses and inadequate capital. Management is trying to remedy the situation, but it’s clear that massive amounts of added capital will be needed.

Many potential investors have not wanted to buy in until they are certain that all of the bad debts have been recognized. Yet the process of writing off debts impairs capital further and makes a run on the bank more likely.

Under G-20 rules approved at the Brisbane Summit in November 2014, governments are no longer allowed to bail out banks with taxpayer money. Instead, they must “bail in” the banks by taking capital from stockholders, depositors and bondholders of the bank itself.

This is another dynamic that makes raising funds more difficult. Potential investors worry about dilution of their investment if the bank has to raise more capital in the future.

[OFSO]

Add to the above (note that it is a different matter): Deutsche Bank has just agreed to pay Federal and New York State regulators $37,000,000 to settle charges that it misled clients about how it routed orders to anonymous trading platforms known as "dark pools". Another $3,250,000 will be paid to the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.

Source: "The Times", Business Section today.

[500N]

$37 million

Is that all ? That is petty cash for a bank like that.

Talk about getting off lightly.

[Airborne Aircrew]

That's like me getting off with a $10 fine for speeding...

<shaking head>

[Magnus]

AA, not that you speed, of course . . .

[Airborne Aircrew]

Magnus:

I used to speed quite a lot on long trips and the radar/laser detector served me well for the most part. But the last three summers has seen me towing a 35' camper with a physical speed limit of 65. Last year I put the radar detector in the center console and haven't used it since...

Maybe I'm getting old...

[OFSO]

The Waning of Germany
Angela Merkel is fading along with the European project she has so recklessly bought into. With Donald Trump about to become president, she has also lost American backing that was so casually offered by Obama. The tide has turned and Brexit Britain is in prime position.
Mrs Merkel has been feted and courted as the de facto leader of the EU for the past decade. Mr Obama was a strong believer in the Euro and EU project, and looked to Mrs Merkel to provide its discipline and to be its voice.

Mr Cameron decided Mrs Merkel was the main person he had to win over when he sought to renegotiate the UK’s relationship. She did not offer him much, which led to the decisive vote by the UK electorate to leave. It was another of her damaging misjudgements, to go alongside the mistake she made over migration into Germany.

Today Mrs Merkel’s power is visibly waning. The UK now has a Brexit government. It sees Mrs Merkel as an obstacle when she blocks early resolution of the residency issues, or when she grandstands telling us we have to accept freedom of movement.

In the USA President Trump has launched public criticisms of her immigration policy and has said he sees the EU as a “German vehicle”. He speaks up for European countries which want to restore their own identities. Her voting base is also under attack from the anti Euro, anti migrant AFD party.

The diminution of Mrs Merkel’s power is helpful to UK as it seeks to negotiate its future relationship with the EU on leaving. Mr Trump will be aware of the huge size of Germany’s balance of payments surplus, which matches part of the large deficits the USA and UK have run up.

He wishes to alter this, and is busily seeking to repatriate motor car capacity and investment to the USA given the large stake Germany has in the world car industry.

The German electors will have their say on whether she should continue as Chancellor this autumn. They will also be voting on how big a contribution will Germany provide to the new EU absent its UK paymaster. What is clear is that Mrs Merkel, or any replacement to her, can no longer count on the automatic support of the USA to keep the Euro and EU together.

Nor can they count on UK cash and support in the Council for lower budgets and better discipline.

John Redwood MP. This and other articles are available at johnredwoodsdiary.com

[500N]

Good article. What I said the other day.

[Chuks]

Deutsche Bank has loans out totaling more than $700 million to various entities associated with Donald Trump and Jared Kushner. These loans represent tremendous potential conflict of interest problems for Donald Trump and, of course, problems for Deutsche Bank and the German government too.

It's interesting to read that over $300 million in Trump debt to Deutsche Bank is nothing much in the context of Trump's supposed wealth (wealth we know nothing much about because of Trump's refusal to release his tax returns), and the scale of his Trump Organization. If this debt is nothing much, why not erase it by repaying the loans, using alternate financing? That would be win-win for both Deutsche Bank, removing exposure to risk and an image of corrupt dealing when attempting to settle the amount the bank must pay in fines for unrelated dealings, and for Trump.

In reality, it seems that Trump simply can not come up with a way to do this thing, so that $300 million is in reality a considerable sum of money for him. For instance, about $170 million is financing for Trump's golf empire, reported to be losing money and thus unattractive to other potential lenders.

It's been extensively discussed that financing has been something Trump, with his history of losing deals and multiple bankruptcies, has had trouble finding, so that he's been forced to deal with non-US entities for some time now, particularly Deutsche Bank. This present problem for Trump, the bank, and both the German and the US government, seems likely to get worse before it gets better by adding ethical and political problems to what had merely been problem loans to Trump, a fellow with a bad record in doing business.

There are two Trumps: Donald J. Trump, and his Trump Organization. There are also two Deutsche Banks, so to speak. Donald Trump sued one branch of the bank for $3 billion while still being extended credit by another branch of the bank, the sort of thing that you just could not make up. "Deutsche is the only big Wall Street bank on Trump’s filings that has continued to lend even as Trump companies filed six bankruptcies. Since 1998, Deutsche has been a lender or co-lender in at least $2.5 billion in loans to Trump or his companies, a Wall Street Journal analysis found in March." https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/won ... c0a4d50fd7

It's reasonable to assume that the German government would like to see this troubled major bank sort out these conflicts of interest before they cause political trouble between Germany and our new president, especially given his very short temper whenever he lands himself in difficulties with anyone else. Expect some more Nazi references from the Orange One if this problem continues.

[IJ Reilly]

There are also two Deutsche Banks, so to speak. Donald Trump sued one branch of the bank for $3 billion while still being extended credit by another branch of the bank, the sort of thing that you just could not make up.

No need to make it up; it is actually quite common to see this sort of thing with large businesses. And there are likely several "Donald Trumps," comprised of various entities and affiliates of the Trump parent co. These would do business as stand-alone LLCs, set up specifically for tax purposes and to cordon off the parent from the affiliate.

These things only surprise clueless writers of the Washington Post (owned by Nash Holdings LLC, a holding company controlled by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos) and certain internet gadflies.

[OFSO]

No need to make it up; it is actually quite common to see this sort of thing with large businesses.

And small ones. Once upon a time I needed to transfer some funds from Germany to Spain so approached my local branch of the CommerzBank to see whether funds paid into the CommerzBank (D) could be easily transferred to the CommerzBank (E). Not a bit of it " two separate entities" I was told in Spain. So I asked Germany - received the same answer. Of course given the stubborn sticklers-to-the-rule of the Germans (if it's not approved it must be forbidden) , combined with the middle-ages attitude of the Spanish (Germany ? seem to remember they bombed us 1938 ?), this should not have surprised me.

[Chuks]

Trump has about 150 LLCs, according to one article I read, when an LLC is relatively opaque, in that there's no requirement for it to post financial reports.

This is going to be pure catnip for some young reporters wanting to make names for themselves in the manner of Woodward and Bernstein. Now, there really are some jobs that Donald Trump is going to be creating!

[IJ Reilly]

This is going to be pure catnip for some young reporters wanting to make names for themselves in the manner of Woodward and Bernstein. Now, there really are some jobs that Donald Trump is going to be creating!

Seeing how modern journalists are recruited from a pool of Social Justice Warriors and bottom-of-the-class Law School grads, they certainly will be looking hard for Trump misdeeds. Mind you, they were noticeably absent during the many Obama era scandals, to such extent that they have convinced themselves that his was one of the most transparent and ethical administrations in decades. Ha! Tell that to conservative fundraising groups pursued by the IRS, convince James Rosen and Stephen Kim and the Bengazi committee, and all the people still waiting for FOIA releases!

[500N]

Trump has about 150 LLCs, according to one article I read, when an LLC is relatively opaque, in that there's no requirement for it to post financial reports.

This is going to be pure catnip for some young reporters wanting to make names for themselves in the manner of Woodward and Bernstein. Now, there really are some jobs that Donald Trump is going to be creating!

LOL, now that is funny you quoting those two, considering how the media has been so totally absent of critical thinking
and reporting over the last 8 - 9 years, effectively giving Obama a free pass.

I'm glad Trump called out the media early on - and I notice he dumps the press pack when he wants to which
is good to see as well. The press won't be getting an easy ride from now on.

[Chuks]

Says the guy who just cited both the NY Times and the Washington Post to prove that there was rioting in D.C. during the Inauguration ....

[Pinky the pilot]

Says the guy who just cited both the NY Times and the Washington Post to prove that there was rioting in D.C. during the Inauguration ....

Chuks; Are you saying that there was not any rioting in DC during the inauguration?

A genuine question BTW.