Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[probes]

Another S300/S400 system bites the dust, this time in Donetsk. Probably the one you mentioned.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112494873797357340

Wow, impressive!

The clearout in the Russian MoD is just a consequence of Shoigu getting the boot. The new guy will want all his cronies in their places.
I doubt very much it will create anything but a bit more inefficiency.

- and instability and uncertainty about who's still in the 'inner circle'

Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, reportedly asked the Kremlin to "provide tax benefits to offset the costs of drone attacks on oil refineries in the Russian Federation."
Sechin writes that due to the increase in "terrorist risks," the company has been forced to implement a wide and costly set of measures to physically protect oil facilities from drones.
The CEO said the company suspended operations at the Syzran, Ryazan, Kuibyshev, and Tuapse refineries due to drone strikes. Sechin proposed compensating the company for security costs through deductions from the mineral extraction tax or income tax and increasing the reverse excise tax on oil.

Rosneft asks Kremlin to compensate for costs of protecting oil refineries from drones

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Russian ruble appreciated past the 90.5 per USD mark in May, its strongest in over three months, amid continued support from capital controls, foreign currency sales under the budget program, and a hawkish Bank of Russia. Moscow is set to sell RUB 6.3 billion worth of foreign exchange per day in May to make up for the shortfall in energy exports compared to what was forecasted by the federal budget, preventing a decline for the ruble. Additionally, the currency remained supported by the presidential decree requiring key exporters to sell at least 80% of foreign exchange proceeds to Russian banks within 120 days of receiving funds, set to continue until the end of April 2025. Lastly, national inflation rate rose to a 14-month high of 7.8% in April, extending inflationary pressures in the country amid higher commodity prices, capacity concerns for refiners, and a shortage of labor. Consequently, the Bank of Russia is expected to maintain its terminal rate for a prolonged period.

From Trading Economics
https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/currency

The actual inflation rate in Russia is likely far higher than the reported rate (but then, which country's isn't? ).
You probably have a much better idea of what it really is.

And the effect of all that is that putin hasn't got money to chuck around, and Rosneft, etc, will just have to suck it up.

[probes]

You must be mistaken - he has absolutely no problems with money nor anything, and is all for fighting as long as it takes, just "sources said that Putin, re-elected in March for a new six-year term, would rather use Russia's current momentum to put the war behind him."
Reuters Exclusive: Putin wants Ukraine ceasefire on current frontlines

Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready to halt the war in Ukraine with a negotiated ceasefire that recognises the current battlefield lines, four Russian sources told Reuters, saying he is prepared to fight on if Kyiv and the West do not respond.
Three of the sources, familiar with discussions in Putin's entourage, said the veteran Russian leader had expressed frustration to a small group of advisers about what he views as Western-backed attempts to stymie negotiations and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's decision to rule out talks.
"Putin can fight for as long as it takes, but Putin is also ready for a ceasefire – to freeze the war," said another of the four, a senior Russian source who has worked with Putin and has knowledge of top level conversations in the Kremlin.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Two words..
..and the second one is OFF!

[probes]

You must have forgotten to specify the first one??

​Ukrainian UAVs Hit russian Voronezh-DM Over-the-Horizon Radar of 6,000 km Observation Range (sat pic, pics and map as well)

[probes]

In an interview with The Economist on May 24th, he called on nato allies supplying weapons to Ukraine to end their prohibition on using them to strike military targets in Russia. Mr Stoltenberg’s clear, if unnamed, target was the policy maintained by Joe Biden, America’s president, of controlling what Ukraine can and cannot attack with American-supplied systems.

The Economist
Well, ruz has been asking for it, especially with what putin's doing to Kharkiv.

The rumours about ruz 'craft heading to bielorussia (based on Flightradar) were true. putin shouldn't take photos with lukashenka (who is huge) - he looks tiny next to him. Or maybe the photographers don't bother about angles any more. Surprise guest janukovich (UKR president who fled the country, Maidan protests) is also there, with lavrov and MoD new head belousov.
Analysts think putin hopes to sell the 'situation' at home as a victory (over NATO), provided he can keep the territories he has occupied up to now.
Rumours that the 'rotation' in ruz MoD is preparation for blaming the army for the fiasko looming on the horizon. Well, maybe not quite on the horizon yet, but.
And, of course, putin is yelping about Zelenskyi's 'legitimacy' - of course he knows the UKR constitution does not allow elections during war (which is why janukovich's plane was in bieloruz, him not shown in person, to indicate putin still wants to uproot Zelenskyi). UKR parliament extended the martial law for 90 days on May 8.

ruz T-90 tanks have appeared in mil videos, one was even tugged away by UKR this night - indicating better units in action, without corresponding success. Thank God and UKR army.
US Excalibur 155 mm, JDAM-ER, M30/M31 and GLSDB have been jammable by ruz, development needed and in progress.

Hikvision (Chinese surveillance cameras) has quietly left ruz market, rumours.

Edited: things must be serious, Orban's squealing out: Viktor Orbán does not want his country to take part in operations outside the military alliance’s territory

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said he was seeking to “redefine” the terms of Nato membership due to his long-standing opposition to aiding Ukraine against Russia’s war.
“Our lawyers and officers are working [to define] how Hungary can exist as a Nato member without taking part in Nato operations outside Nato territory,” Orbán told national radio on Friday.
The Hungarian leader has refused to send military aid to Kyiv and has repeatedly delayed EU sanctions on Russia in response to Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He is also adamantly opposed to Nato training Ukrainian soldiers in Ukraine.
“There have not been many situations in the history of Nato when a member state would stick to the basic idea of Nato as openly and clearly as Hungary does now, and therefore . . . its position within the military alliance would have to be redefined,” Orbán said.
His position is that Ukrainian forces cannot win on the battlefield, that the west should avoid a conflict with Russia by any means and that Kyiv should agree to an immediate ceasefire. The US has said a ceasefire now would amount to capitulation.

actually, what an idea (nothing new with him, of course) - "a Nato member without taking part in Nato operations outside Nato territory". So, hoping ruz won't come to NATO territory, or would his troops go against ruz then? But of course, he does not want to leave and give up all the nice cakes, just have all the benefits from both sides.

[probes]

As Russian losses in Ukraine hit 500,000, Putin buries future demographic risks at home

Just how big are 500,000 losses?

"Half a million killed and wounded is a huge figure," says Foreman.
​​If confirmed, France's 150,000 figure of Russian troops killed is around 10 times higher than that suffered by the Soviet army during the decade-long war it fought in Afghanistan from 1979 until 1989.
For comparison, the U.S. military lost around 102,000 soldiers killed in all the wars it fought since the end of World War II, including 58,220 during the Vietnam War.
The U.K. suffered 750,000 military casualties during the six years of the Second World War.
And Russia's losses show no signs of slowing – in fact, they've reached record levels in recent weeks.

Does the Kremlin care?

In December 2023, Putin signed a decree promising to pay 5 million rubles ($55,450) to the families of soldiers killed in Ukraine, and 3 million rubles ($33,270) to those wounded.
And at the start of the full-scale invasion, Putin said the families of those killed would be paid a "statutory insurance coverage and a lump sum payment of 7,421,000 rubles ($82,298)," as well as "a monthly compensation will be paid to every family member of the dead."
And then there are the social costs – rates of PTSD and alcohol and drug addiction among Russian soldiers returning home have surged, as well as murder and violent crime incidents involving veterans.

"It's a balance sheet calculation," Foreman says in reference to Belousov's comments.

"Obviously now there are things like casualty compensation payments to families of dead and injured, the murder rate increase and increase in PTSD, alcoholism, domestic violence, which are all linked to lots of people coming back wounded or traumatized from the front."
Added to this are the inevitable labor shortages caused by men either fleeing the country to avoid serving in the army, or being killed or wounded when they do.
"It all adds up to another demographic time bomb which I think is going to blow its way through Russia in the next 10-20 years," says Foreman.

[probes]

ruz has proudly damaged a shopping mall.
Of super-strategic mil importance, no doubt. [irony]

Video-update by Denys Davydov (- link to "aviation and personal life"):
Ruzzian Air defense and airplanes were smashed by ATACMS again

[probes]

The famous Baba-Yaga:

[tango15]

Ah yes, baba yaga. Used to keep many a Russian child in check! I remember there used to be a cartoon on Russian TV featuring the witch, and one of the interpreters I worked with told me that they frightened her daughter to death!

[probes]

That's actually the day before: Krasnodar region airfield analysed, putin's peace charade in bielorus explained, frontline and maps; Krasnodar radar sat pics and pics and damage, the tank (now UKR tank), Stoltenberg on weapons inside ruz, the Sukhoi of ruz pride, Krynkyi; ruz bloggers afraid of Zaporozzia flood if dam destroyed; No of people with disabilities in ruz; ruz EW causing problems; the S-400 fireworks (that Fox posted above), bombers around Taiwan. Georgia protests.

Update from Ukraine | Awesome! Ukraine Strikes Ruzzian Airfield! Many jets are gone. by Denys Davydov

Update on the airbase by Suchomimus:

[probes]

Sweden allows UKR to strike on ruz ground, as ruz has started the agression and UKR is on the right side of the law to do that.
WHY do many think it's necessary to repeat again and again that they won't lift the ban... ... ruz is encouraged and strikes where they sniff fear. Hence hybrid 'issues' here and there in NATO countries.
Zelenskyi said ruz is gathering a new formation in the Sumy region - analysts say ruz does not have enough power to actually acheive something strategic (the Kharkiv attempt stopped about 10-15 km to the depth), but enough to kill civilians and destroy anything in the range of their artillery (which is a no-no to destroy when on ruz ground. How crazy can it be??). Zelenskyi is probably trying to minimise the eager reports by the jerks who lap up what's meant for being lapped up in information wars (showing ruz as more powerful than it is and having initiative and threatening with full assault from the northern border).
It's said to be significant that ruz has not been able to draw UKR forces away from other directions - ruz has some success here and there, nothing definite (yet?). But it's ramping up glide bomb production, around 100-200 deployed every day (!), mostly the 250 kg and 500 kg. That much about hi-tech warfare... the deadliest and most cost-efficient are still just artillery and glide bombs.
Ukraine Conflict Monitor for detailed intel (incl. interactive conflict map).
Orjol oblast - refinery on fire.

Polish Sikorsky (MoD) said that if ruz uses nukes, even if no-one dies, NATO will vaporise their forces in UKR with 'regular' weapons. medvedyev took offence and expressed it in his unique (for a govt official) style.

ruz limitless personnel still has limits - FT

“The government can keep riding on this system for a while,” the person said, but “by the end of this year, or early next year, a new partial mobilisation wave will become inevitable”.
As long as the Kremlin shunned another mobilisation wave, a significant Russian offensive would not be possible this summer, the person said.
“The Russian authorities, at least for now, are still ready to sacrifice some operational successes on the front to shield the rest of society from the war,” they said.
Some regions in Russia are already struggling to meet recruitment quotas. In the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, one councillor said the city mainly sent “alcoholics, homeless people, abusers and convicts” to the war. He explained that only two men were recruited in February from his central district because it was a more affluent one and potential draftees lived on the fringes of the city.

Japan, the US and China are meeting in Soul - a sign that China still doesn't want to look like total support to the agressor. ruz that is.

[probes]

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Luhansk airport hit in two separate attacks by ATACMS tonight.
Looks like a lot of fires.
First video reportedly from on site.
Appears to have been taken by a Russian serviceman adjacent to a SAM command vehicle, but that's a wild-assed guess on my part.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112515267375964167

[boing]

What about the ring of fire in the right foreground about half way into the clip. Burning fuel?

[probes]

- and not just the airport, it's near the infrastructure facilities of the former Luhansk Higher Military Aviation School and the nearby aircraft repair plant.
A drone shot down in a Moscow suburb.
Drones near putin's palace in Krasnodar oblast.
Elsewhere no change - ruz is trying hard, no success or marginal success. The Sieversk direction: bloggers share their 'puzzlement' on how armoured units are sent to certain death, probably under 'influence', as the explosions around seemingly mean nothing to the vehicles moving towards their 'goal'. Supposedly they keep on main roads trying to avoid getting lost. Elsewhere T-90 tanks - hope of more qualified units destroyed as well.

UKR praises Bradleys.

China and Brazil refuse to go to the peace summit (June) without ruz. Or at least the highest reps. So does South-Africa. Reportedly are they pro-ruz, as it is not a colonising country. Depends on how you define 'colonising', of course - is it in the neighbourhood (which does not seem to bother them) or overseas (which is not nice either, of course).
ruz is feeling more and more love for Taliban. One badly needs new trade routes, and if you really need some international recognition, it's possible to forget the previous wars on your soil. ruz was in Afghanistan for about 10 yrs.
Biden has something in LA at that time.

Orban has angered and exasperated EU leaders to the extent they are voicing their frustration. Well, will there be any action, I wonder.

French instructors in UKR was publicly announced. Relevant for future (the announcement, that is).

[probes]

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

What about the ring of fire in the right foreground about half way into the clip. Burning fuel?

I think we may be looking at concentric rings of fire due to the dispersion of the cluster bomblets, from somewhere either inside or close to the edge of one of the patterns.
It's probably the airfield grass on fire, guessing at the weather they've had recently.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

First satellite view of the Luhansk airfield, post-strike.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112519448904752049
It does indeed look like it was the grass burning.
The centre of the burnt area is here.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/48%C2 ... ?entry=ttu
It's certainly a likely site for a SAM battery.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Sat pics taken just before the strike show a Nebo-M SAM radar system at the same co-ordinates as the strike.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112520702359882906
The pics show what the poster thinks is an RLM-M at the centre of the targetted area. I concur.
This is the long range search and acquisition radar.
The second element is a RLM-D tracking radar. I am not sure about this.

Re-examining the original video, I am now sure the vehicle in shot is a SAM command post, the KU-RLK associated with the Nebo-K.
This may not have been present in the pre-strike photo, or it might have been just out of shot.

This is the very latest Russian radar system, capable of detecting stealth fighters, and they will be p!ssed to lose it.