Millions of us might be **** if we ignore the Russian-Ukraine war

[probes]

- well, can't blame him maybe, his wrecks were shown in several cities, too.
Even so, the grand celebrations (as they used to be) have been cancelled in several regions. Security, youknow.
And airports in Moscow are full of Tajik migrants (for extra check or to be sent home) - some terrorists expected to be among them, probably.

Some good news for UKR - 3 S-300 components and one S-400 lost in the Crimea - based on z-information, no videos, but the atmosphere around ATACMS is getting very nervous. Supposedly ruz air defence can't hit them.
UKR Jak-52 crew shot down an Orlan-10 drone - cheap and effective; on the other hand, if the concentration of drones and aircraft rises...

Jompy contemplates on ruz stored mil equipment, but it's better to take a look there, pics are interesting.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

A new development, I think.
The Ukrainians are now targeting Russian army trucks over the border in Belgorod Oblast.

This is about 5 miles over the border, east of Shebekino. It's the first main highway on the Russian side.
I don't think the drivers get to walk away, either.

[probes]

More bad news (as Zelenskiy said will happen for a couple of weeks) - around Avdiivka the ruz breakthrough is getting critical. Not yet, but probably soon. Reportedly problems with UKR command chains as well.
ruz used cluster munition on Odessa, 'mil objects' of course as usual - ruz never harms any non-military object per common knowledge [pardon my irony], several civilians killed, incl children.
ruz propaganda is blooming, long-run networks discovered in Czechia this time. But the Polish farmers stopped blocking the border, that's good at least.

Ukrainian Fighter Jets “Using iPads” To Control Western Weapons

The US bought around 80 aircraft (Mig-29/27, Su-24) from Kazakhstan to be transferred to UKR, probably for spare parts or decoy, reportedly they're not operable.

P.S. Tyumen-Omsk highway partly flooded

[probes]

Another day, another explosions in the Crimea, Belgorod... well, youknow.


thank you, Suchomimus!

[probes]

Oil refinery hit in Ryazan, 500 km from UKR border.
ruz bombed Odessa, residential quarters as for several days. They don't even seem to be targeting the port or other facilities. Shahed drones are scarce - maybe the rumours of the facility hit in ruz was correct, then.
ruz is trying hard around Bakhmut and Lyman, no success for mysterious reasons. Which can't be said about Avdiivka region, ruz has gained ground towards north, in km even. Bad news.
The little island in Dnipro delta is back in UKR control again, ruz kicked out, which is actually not so relevant territory-wise, but the area makes ruz nervous - they'd like more 'free space' around there for maneuvres.
The most festive celebrations in ruz, the Day of Victory over fashism (literally single-handedly per recent rhetorics) in the 2nd WW, are being scaled down, which is unherd of. No parades in the oblasts that have been targeted by UKR drones, and the parade in Moscow is also more 'modest'. Come to think of it, isn't it a good idea to parade the trophy equipment - maybe that won't be targeted?
One never knows?

P.S if you want to know what's it actually about, google 'mental cognitive war', 'deep state' and 'Antichrist' - I won't put the links here, it's too... what's the word... deranged? - ruz as the civilization's peacekeeper etc.

[probes]

The cards have been thoroughly shuffled in the cost-benefit game of warfare, and 'not for nothing' has ruz been jamming the GPS signals.
Another US precision-guided weapon falls prey to Russian electronic warfare, US says (Defense One)

So, back to basics - a simple 155 cal is robust and cost effective.
Ukraine Ramps Up Production of Bohdana Self-Propelled Howitzers
The 'defence innovation' to avoid drones is also somewhat unexpected - camouflage netting or wire cages..
The refinery in Ryazan (one of the biggest of ruz, btw) also supposedly had some kind of netting, which didn't help this time. Massive fire.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Ukraine received Western weapons from some partners with a permission to strike at Russian territory.

As I said a while back, I think this is an essential part of a successful Ukrainian strategy for this year.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/1/7453799/

[probes]

Absolutely.
On ruz missilie supplies:

The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) identified Russia's estimated stocks of Zircon, Oniks, Kalibr, and Kh-69 missiles, as well as the rate of their manufacturing.
Source: DIU in a comment to Army Inform
Details: According to intelligence estimates, as of the end of April 2024, the Russian military have approximately 40 units of 3M22 Zircon hypersonic anti-ship missiles at their disposal. The production pace for these missiles is up to ten units per month.
They also possess 400 units of 3M55/3M55M Oniks/Oniks-M cruise missiles. The production rate of those is also up to 10 units per month.
The number of Kalibr 3M-14 cruise missiles is 270 units. The production rate is 30-40 units per month.
There are 45 Kh-69 air-to-ground missiles in Russian stocks. Their production rate is 1-3 units per month.

Kiyv Post: Kremlin’s Recent Successes Around Avdiivka – 5 Things to Know

Strikes on refineries have been successful, and by now there's panic about ATACMS - unbelievable, they could strike ruz territory! Terrorists! Murderers! - but of course, nothing surprises, I mean really surprises, from the ruz propaganda brigade. Not any more.

[probes]

UKR is re-locating some schools to underground facilities.
Europe, 21st century, the "peace dove" (as their rhetorics goes) ruz in action.

ATACMS in action - at least one troops training field hit (Luhansk, Kuban; possibly Mariupol). ruz skies are not peaceful either.

Around Avdiivka still bad news, still the direction where ruz is gaining ground.
ruz has used chloropicrin, chemical weapon, that is. Banned, but who cares. Not the first time either. Well, the US is imposing more sanctions, but...
Officials in the occupied regions are trying to foster careers elsewhere (in ruz), meaning the certainty of long-term career there is crumbling.
And shoigu demands more weapons.
Another day of more than a thousand ruz troops dead or wounded.

[probes]

Apocalypse in Chasiv Yar - another beautiful city totally destroyed. Video included.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Lightning does strike twice.
A Russian T-64BV destroyed near Bilohorivka. The first FPV pierces the cope cage and immobilizes the tank after which a second FPV hits it at the same place, causing detonation.
https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112369929138762317

[probes]

Discussion here: Satellite imagery of Ukrainian strikes on Russian airfield in Crimea

[probes]

Sorry, but more on Trump:

According to Trump, he supports Ukraine and wants to prevent aggression in the Old World, but Europe isn’t paying anything close to its fair share on the Russo-Ukraine War and deterring the Kremlin. And American largesse and patience has its limits, he said.
“I want nothing bad to happen to Europe, I love Europe, I love the people of Europe, I have a great relationship with Europe. But they’ve taken advantage of us, both on NATO and on Ukraine. We’re in for billions of dollars more than they’re in in Ukraine. It shouldn’t be that way. It should be the opposite way,” Trump said in part. “Europe has to get there also and do their job. They’re not doing their job. Europe is not paying their fair share.”

According to findings published by that Germany-based independent research group, the value of international financial and military assistance to Ukraine since Russia’s Feb. 2022 invasion from European states to date has been worth some $95.2 billion. That number is money or materiel allocated, as opposed to promised, researchers said.

The United States, over the same period, has committed $71.8 billion to Ukraine in all forms of assistance, an April 24 report compiled by KIWE researchers found.

That finding directly contradicts Trump’s claim that US commitments to Ukraine are “billions more” than Europe’s.

Kyiv Post was unable to determine whether Trump was either unaware of official, state-published data of actual international support both promised to and received by Ukraine, or he was aware of data and ignored it when commenting to Time. Kyiv Post asked President Trump’s office for comment but had not received a response to that request by the time this article was published.

A little peculiarly, a Time magazine fact-check report on the Trump interview, published on April 30, did not challenge the former US President’s claim America is paying through the nose for Ukraine and Europe is doing close to nothing. Instead, the 4,000+ word Time review of Trump’s statements for accuracy did not mention the word “Ukraine” even once.

Kiyv Post, fact-check ANALYSIS: Trump Says Europe Is Freeloading on Ukraine, But the Actual Numbers Are Bigly Different
Not that the bickering matters to troops who die in the battlefield or displaced people.

[probes]

Omce again, all sorts of things claimed by all sorts of sources, so it's hard to figure out what's actually going on.
Up to 3 BUK-systems destroyed on ruz soil (usually precedes major drone operations by UKR).
Robotyne is flattened, gray zone with no hope to survive for either sides.

Avdiivka - still bad, but a bit more optimistic, US munition seems to have arrived here and there.

shoigu has more reasons to worry - putin had a meeting with his previous pal tyumin, governor of Tula right now, and rumours are that could be preparation for replacing shoigu on May 7th of shortly after the ceremony of 'pravitel putin' (=ruler).

ruz is trying hard on the 'information front', especially pre the peace summit in Switzerland (ruz not infited at the first stage). E.g. the massive fire in German mil facility was claimed to have been ruz operation. Nothing to back up that, yet at least. Might have, of course.

Lots of ruz spy drones everywhere (well, they did lose the spy plane, so ...).

P.S ruz Gazprom is in trouble - and gas isn't even sanctioned! - their market has shrunk and the prices are down to the pre-war (or about) level, and China can or wants to by only so much...



AND - the UK has said: of course UKR can use all the weapons given to them on ruz territory. ruz is attacking them, why wouldn't they resist and fight back?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Big ATACMS strike north of Yevpatoria, Crimea.

The NASA IR satellite is showing a huge fire here
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/ma ... .45,14.00z
(zoom out for general location.
Also note that the hotspot on the edge of the military airfield to the south appears to be an industrial plant.
Looks to me like a cement works, so this heat signature is normal operation, not a Ukrainian strike.
And the large heat signature even further south is Crimea's biggest cement works.)
The site is a limestone quarry - stone does not burn.
However, it's clear from photos of the site pre-war that the product is large bricks of limestone, which would make excellent ready materials for building revetments for, say, an S-300/400 SAM site,
plus ready earth ramps for putting the radar(s) on top of.
Plus the size of the heat signature is about the same as when the S-300 SAM battery at Dzhankoi was hit.
Plus it's just about the perfect location to site a big SAM battery to defend western Crimea, from Sevastopol to Dzhankoi.

Or was.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Small Russian assault - tank with two BMPs advance.
Russian tank fires at (possible) Ukrainian position.
I'm guessing this is just standard fire-at-anywhere-that-might-hide-an-ATGM-team.
However, the smoke from the barrel and surrounding dust stirred up makes the Russian tank obvious.
Ukrainian tank appears from cover (maybe a Leopard, I'm unsure, but a wide western-style turret), takes one shot.
Russian tank destroyed, turret blown off. The 2 BMPs retreat at Warp Factor 9.

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112381781962968382

Here's a similar Russian assault, a T-62 and 2 APCs wiped out.
Don't know how the tank gets disabled, but after more than two years the Russian soldiers are still leaving the hatches open when they run, so it's drone-dropped grenades at $20 a pop to destroy $250k IFVs.


Small unit attacks like this makes sense in a couple of senses, as the Ukes don't have the artillery ammo to stop them that way, and they aren't worth an expensive weapon.
However, if the Ukrainians have a western tank available, or enough unjammed drones, then the Russians are toast.

[probes]

ruz SU-25 down in Donetsk region.

Why is Spain sitting on hundreds of tanks and air defence systems? Who do they want to use it against? If Russia is allowed to move towards Spain, we will face completely different problems, the analyst explains.

Nico Lange, a researcher at the Centre for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)

Bradleys 'upgraded'
The US Army has long recognized the need to integrate active protection systems into its Bradley IFVs, but funding has only been secured now

And, "... the jammer doesn't seem to work, since it failed to jam "

[probes]

ruz prime puppet zakharova not happy:


As someone mentioned somewhere, the only thing to provoke ruz is looking weak, and that Macron has supposedly finally got the point.

ruz claims four ATACMS shot down in the Crimea - no proof, though. On the other hand, there really were massive blasts in ruz mil base (the Crimea), for hours, and as deduced per local social media, these could have been Iskander ballistic missile launchers hit. No commet from UKR. Fingers crossed.

Avdiivka - still not good. Some sources claim the defencive lines were not prepared as they should have been, maybe the commanders didn't expect ruz to advance there that much. Bad anyway.
Elsewhere - same, ruz trying hard and losing troops; here and there looks like the fresh supplies have arrived. As per mil bloggers on both sides.

[probes]

well ...?
AI to inform us:

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Media is dead.
Now they are so incestuous they have media interviewing media about artificial media that will speak to media.